Ask not what John McCain can do for your country; ask what you can do for John McCain.
What can one do for John McCain in the next six days?
To use poker terminology, ship it all-in.
What do I mean by that? I certainly don't recommend putting all your "chips" on McCain on Intrade. In fact, I would recommend doing the exact opposite if you're the gambling type.* What I mean is that as many McCain supporters as possible need to put as much money and, possibly more importantly, time towards his campaign as possible the next six days.
The odds don't look good. Polls don't matter to me. The map is all that matters. The official, final national poll doesn't even mean anything (just ask Al Gore). I'm not an actuary or a statistician, but I did get a 4.0 in Discrete Probability and tutor it (before I took it in college, lol).
Intrade's map shows an expected 346.6 electoral votes for Obama. Assuming the probability distribution is normal, or more centered than a normal distribution, McCain has a 1/74 chance of winning. To put that in perspective, making an inside straight on the last card in 5-card stud is a 1/12 shot. Make it a straight flush, and it's still 1/48. The odds of McCain winning the election at this point are the same as the Vikings winning the Super Bowl or Golden State winning the NBA championship next June.
*As much as Intrade may like people to think that it sells securities, it is really nothing more than a betting exchange. So when I say do the opposite of betting on McCain, I don't mean to bet on Obama. I mean to bet against McCain: "lay" McCain (to win) by selling him short.
Showing posts with label Sarah Palin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sarah Palin. Show all posts
10/29/2008
9/12/2008
Why I'm not worried about Obama losing
The Palin pick has energized enthusiasm for the Republican ticket, pulling McCain ahead in national polls. The first reason this does not worry me is that, in the Boston Globe this week, Democratic political experts were quoted as saying that this uptick is a temporary bounce and it will eventually die down. I assume that this means that once Palin is done being completely controlled in public by campaign handlers, some of the voters she has attracted--mainly independents--will be turned off by her hard-core conservative positions.
But that is not the biggest reason I am still optimistic about Obama. In a nutshell, polls mean nothing. The electoral college means everything. John Kerry won states worth 252 electoral votes in 2004. If Obama carries all these states, he needs to add only 18 more electoral votes to win.
Breaking down the states Kerry won, the following are almost certainly in the Democratic (blue) column (defined as >70% probability of Obama winning as of this morning on Intrade).
California (55 electoral votes)
Oregon (7)
Washington (11)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Illinois (21)
Pennsylvania (21)
Maryland (10)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Maine (4)
Massachusetts (12)
Vermont (3)
Rhode Island (4)
Connecticut (7)
Hawaii (4)
Strongly leaning blue (<70%, >65%):
Michigan (17)
Leaning blue (<65%, >60%):
New Hampshire (4)
So Obama should acheive Kerry's 252 as a baseline.
Winning either Ohio (20) or Florida (27), would put Obama over the top. Florida looks like a long shot; this morning the quoted probability of Obama winning was only 36%. Ohio looks like a toss up at 57/43 in McCain's favor.
But Obama does not need Ohio to win, though you can bet the house that he will give it the maximum amount of effort there (Something Kerry neglected to do by not speaking in Cleveland in the days before the election).
The following states can put him over the 270 electoral votes needed without winning Ohio:
Iowa (7 EV's, 74%)
New Mexico (5, 60%)
Colorado (9, 55%)
Nevada (5, 44%)
Given that Ohio and Colorado are tossups, and assuming New Mexico and New Hampshire hold, I like his chances to carry either Ohio (making 284 total electoral votes) or Colorado (273), or both (293). According to Intrade's probabilities and my assumption that NM and NH will hold, the mathematical odds are almost 3:1 that Obama will carry either Colorado or Ohio, or both; and win the election.
But that is not the biggest reason I am still optimistic about Obama. In a nutshell, polls mean nothing. The electoral college means everything. John Kerry won states worth 252 electoral votes in 2004. If Obama carries all these states, he needs to add only 18 more electoral votes to win.
Breaking down the states Kerry won, the following are almost certainly in the Democratic (blue) column (defined as >70% probability of Obama winning as of this morning on Intrade).
California (55 electoral votes)
Oregon (7)
Washington (11)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Illinois (21)
Pennsylvania (21)
Maryland (10)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Maine (4)
Massachusetts (12)
Vermont (3)
Rhode Island (4)
Connecticut (7)
Hawaii (4)
Strongly leaning blue (<70%, >65%):
Michigan (17)
Leaning blue (<65%, >60%):
New Hampshire (4)
So Obama should acheive Kerry's 252 as a baseline.
Winning either Ohio (20) or Florida (27), would put Obama over the top. Florida looks like a long shot; this morning the quoted probability of Obama winning was only 36%. Ohio looks like a toss up at 57/43 in McCain's favor.
But Obama does not need Ohio to win, though you can bet the house that he will give it the maximum amount of effort there (Something Kerry neglected to do by not speaking in Cleveland in the days before the election).
The following states can put him over the 270 electoral votes needed without winning Ohio:
Iowa (7 EV's, 74%)
New Mexico (5, 60%)
Colorado (9, 55%)
Nevada (5, 44%)
Given that Ohio and Colorado are tossups, and assuming New Mexico and New Hampshire hold, I like his chances to carry either Ohio (making 284 total electoral votes) or Colorado (273), or both (293). According to Intrade's probabilities and my assumption that NM and NH will hold, the mathematical odds are almost 3:1 that Obama will carry either Colorado or Ohio, or both; and win the election.
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