Palin 2012

Ask not what John McCain can do for your country; ask what you can do for John McCain.

What can one do for John McCain in the next six days?

To use poker terminology, ship it all-in.

What do I mean by that? I certainly don't recommend putting all your "chips" on McCain on Intrade. In fact, I would recommend doing the exact opposite if you're the gambling type.* What I mean is that as many McCain supporters as possible need to put as much money and, possibly more importantly, time towards his campaign as possible the next six days.

The odds don't look good. Polls don't matter to me. The map is all that matters. The official, final national poll doesn't even mean anything (just ask Al Gore). I'm not an actuary or a statistician, but I did get a 4.0 in Discrete Probability and tutor it (before I took it in college, lol).

Intrade's map shows an expected 346.6 electoral votes for Obama. Assuming the probability distribution is normal, or more centered than a normal distribution, McCain has a 1/74 chance of winning. To put that in perspective, making an inside straight on the last card in 5-card stud is a 1/12 shot. Make it a straight flush, and it's still 1/48. The odds of McCain winning the election at this point are the same as the Vikings winning the Super Bowl or Golden State winning the NBA championship next June.


*As much as Intrade may like people to think that it sells securities, it is really nothing more than a betting exchange. So when I say do the opposite of betting on McCain, I don't mean to bet on Obama. I mean to bet against McCain: "lay" McCain (to win) by selling him short.